How Technology Is Changing Transportation and Energy
A disruptive innovation is defined as an innovation that creates a new market and value network and eventually disrupts an existing market and value network, displacing established market leading firms, products and alliances. (1)
There are several technologies that are preparing to converge and collective cause a major disruption to society. There technologies are:
- Electric Vehicles
- Autonomous Vehicles
- Solar Power
- Energy Storage
Within each of these 4 technologies there are multiple enablers that are accelerating thier adoption. In this talk from Tony Seba given earlier this year in Oslo Norway, each of these are discussed in great detail. How do these technologies complement each other and when will they reach the tipping point that is sure to arrive?
The time frames the Tony projects are much closer than you may imagine and it reality it may even be sooner than he predicts. Using technology cost curves, the author shows how these technologies play off each other and when they will start to impact our world.
It is interesting to note than none of these projections talk about the impact of climate change on consumers buying habits. Electric vehicles powered by solar produce zero emissions.
The Future For Transportation and Energy.
If we are to learn anything from history it is that we tend to underestimate the full impact for some new innovations and even miss the severity of the coming disruption. When electric cars become cheaper than their gas model counterparts including the cost of maintenance, there will be no reason to buy combustion engine models. This will lead to a revolution in electric car adoption in the major cities around the world.
Next lets look at automous cars. Supercomputer technology prices are falling to the point that you can buy 8 terraflop boards the size of a lunch box. Using this level of computing power to sense the world and control a car automatically will leapfrog automous vehicle reliability.
If we then add home solar with energy storage to the mix, you can easily predict a future that does not include energy utilties in the classical sense as we know them today.
This is talk that I recommend all of our readers watch. These innovations for transportation and energy, will impact each and every one of us, sooner rather than later.
1-The term was defined and phenomenon analyzed by Clayton M. Christensen beginning in 1995.
Gordon's expertise in the area of industrial energy efficiency and alternative energy. He is an experienced electrical engineer with a Masters degree in Alternative Energy technology. He is the co-founder of several renewable energy media sites including Solar Thermal Magazine.