On Monday April 7, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will begin the staged release of the complete Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014), expanding on the AEO2014 Reference case tables and highlights that were issued in December 2013. The April 7 release will include the first of eight Issues in Focus articles, which will be released according to the schedule below over the next four weeks.
The final components of AEO2014 will be released on April 30, and will include a legislation and regulations section that discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues, a market trends section that highlights and summarizes selected aspects of the projections for energy markets, and a comparison of AEO2014 projections with those from other organizations.
U.S. tight oil production: Alternative supply projections and an overview of EIA’s analysis of well-level data aggregated to the county level (release on April 7)
This article discusses the projected oil production, prices, and net imports under alternative cases using assumptions that result in higher and lower estimates of crude oil and natural gas resources than those in the Reference case. It also discusses improvements to the National Energy Modeling System’s Oil and Gas Supply Module for AEO2014 that are improving EIA’s ability to analyze rapid growth in tight oil production.
Potential for liquefied natural gas use as a railroad fuel (release on April 14)
This article examines the potential for fueling freight locomotives with liquefied natural gas (LNG). While there is significant appeal for major U.S. railroads in using LNG as a fuel for locomotives because of its potentially favorable economics, there are also factors that may limit the extent to which railroads can take advantage of this relatively cheap and abundant fuel.
Light-duty vehicle energy demand: demographics and travel behavior (release on April 16)
This article discusses two alternative cases that examine variations in travel demand as compared with the Reference case. One case assumes an environment in which travel choices made by drivers result in lower demand for personal vehicle travel, consistent with recent trends in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per licensed driver. Another case assumes changes in travel behavior that result in an increase in VMT per licensed driver relative to the Reference case.
No Sunset and Extended Policies cases (release on April 21)
This article provides insight into the sensitivity of projections to a scenario in which existing tax credits that have sunset dates are assumed not to terminate and to a scenario in which other policies (e.g., vehicle fuel economy standards, appliance standards, and building codes) are expanded beyond current provisions in addition to the elimination of sunset provisions on existing tax credits.
Implications of lower natural gas prices on industrial production (release on April 23)
This article discusses the projected effect on industrial output under alternative cases using assumptions of higher or lower global oil prices or higher and lower estimates of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas resources than those in the Reference case. The analysis reviews broader economic impacts of energy price changes, such as trade, and the resulting industry effects.
Implications of accelerated power plant retirements (release on April 28)
This article evaluates the effects of significant amounts of coal and nuclear power plant retirements on the U.S. electric power sector. It discusses the impact of assumptions in alternative cases that make coal and nuclear power plants less attractive sources of electricity generation.
Variations in AEO2014 renewable electricity projections (release on April 29)
This article discusses the sensitivity of renewable electricity projections to variations in key assumptions related to policy, technology cost, and macroeconomic factors. It compares renewable electricity projections from the AEO2014 Reference case to results from seven alternative cases that adjust some of these key assumptions, and finds that these variations can significantly affect the level and composition of long-term renewable electricity projections.
Implications of low electricity demand growth (release on April 30, 2014)
This article discusses the energy implications of slower growth in electricity demand, using a scenario in which annual electricity demand in 2040 is only slightly higher than the 2012 level. It examines the resulting effect on electricity generation, emissions, and the mix of technologies used to meet demand compared to the Reference case.
The complete Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with all components included will be available on April 30.