New Report Suggests that Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Growth will be Affected by Falling PV Costs

GTM Research forecasts CSP installations to slow down in 2011, with 472 MW slated to come online versus the 767 MW deployed in 2010. Growth is expected to resume in 2012 with more than 1,200 MW installed, and the most significant spate of growth is expected in 2013 and beyond, when annual installations should top 2,000 MW. While this wave of global project commissioning brings promise, industry optimism is increasingly mitigated by the competitive threat posed by solar PV, which continues to reduce its installed cost faster than CSP.

“Simultaneously, CSP is experiencing unprecedented growth and facing extinctionâ€

At over 150 pages with more than 140 data-rich exhibits, Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets examines in detail the state of the industry with an emphasis on project economics (cost per watt and cost per kWh), top markets (U.S., Spain, and China), and a detailed CSP pipeline with over 170 projects globally. The report forecasts CSP and PV costs as well as expected total installations through 2020.

“Simultaneously, CSP is experiencing unprecedented growth and facing extinction,†said Brett Prior, the report’s author and a senior analyst at GTM Research. “Certain projects that were announced in 2007 to 2009, and already have utility contracts, are finally securing financing, breaking ground and will eventually become the largest solar plants the world has ever seen. However, the majority of the industry is at risk thanks to the dramatic decline in PV costs, which creates a situation where utilities are more often choosing lower-cost PV options over CSP, thereby pushing the industry toward potential obsolescence.â€

The current competitive environment is personified by the opposing fortunes of the industry; BrightSource’s Ivanpah project and Abengoa’s Solana make significant progress, while early-mover Tessera Solar has been forced to lay off employees and sell its flagship Calico project to a PV developer.

CSP plants coming online in the next few years will undoubtedly help manufacturers further down the experience curve move towards lower costs, as GTM Research forecasts CSP project costs to decline 3% to 7% per year in the period 2010 to 2020. However, PV costs will also continue their own substantial declines, with PV expected to maintain a cost advantage (on both a cost-per-watt and cost-per-kWh basis) through 2020.

“The trend of CSP projects being converted into PV projects is a troubling one,†said Prior. “In order to turn the tide, CSP developers need either to improve their cost per kWh against PV or to convince utilities to pay extra for storage and dispatchable generation. Barring one of these outcomes, the long-term future for CSP is bleak.â€

ABOUT THE REPORT

Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets is a detailed study of the current CSP market, with a project-by-project analysis that presents the strengths and weaknesses of CSP’s four major technologies (parabolic trough, power tower, dish, and linear Fresnel reflector) within the context of the greater renewables market. In addition, the report offers cost (LCOE, CAPEX), competitive market share, and development analyses for each CSP technology, and includes more than 80 profiles of the industry’s leading technology and development companies.

Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets contains critical intelligence for consultants, market analysts, investors, and solar industry professionals. You can learn more at the report’s website: www.gtmresearch.com/report/concentrating-solar-power-2011-technology-costs-and-markets

Tags: concentrated solar thermal, solar costs, solar economy, solar industry, solar thermal company, solar thermal project

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